The need to change is now!

So, sitting in my study at the end of a day spent in London when it was at least 32­°C and not all that much lower several hours later, brings my mind back to some of the stuff I was looking at when I first thought about this blog.

Back at the end of last year, the UK Met Office released its first set of climate predictions in almost 10 years; the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18). These look at four potential climate scenarios in the UK, and how they would pan out over the coming decades. 

This report is useful for planning purposes, and has become even more pertinent given the government legislating for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, to try and do our part in keeping global temperature rises down to around 1.5°C. Also, there has been the rise in prominence of things like Extinction Rebellion, climate emergencies and student activism through people such as Greta Thunberg.

As some background, the report shows some interesting observations for where we find ourselves at the moment, including;

• Average temperature over the decade up to 2017 was 0.3°C warmer than 1981-2010 average, and 0.8°C warmer than 1961-1990
• 9 of the 10 warmest years in the UK have happened since 2002
• In 1961-1990, the average hottest day was 26°C. 
• In the last decade the average was 0.8°C warmer
• Average rainfall, especially in Scotland, has increased over the last two decades.
• There has been a 4% increase in Scotland against the 1981-2010 average
• 2008-2017 – UK summers were an average 17% wetter than 1981-2010, and 20% wetter than 1961-1990
• Mean sea level on the UK coast has risen 16cm (6.3 in) since the start of the 20^th century 

UKCP18 maps out 4 nattily titled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to demonstrate the potential effects. We are starting to use this in our business as a means to demonstrate to senior management that there are likely to be quite severe risks (and maybe some opportunities) that need to be faced even when trying to do 'business as usual' - and the more prepared and flexible a business is, the more chance it has of staying in the game (and therefore be sustainable).

As a business, we have taken RCP2.6 - which assumes that loads of stuff is achieved, and we tackle much of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) problem, and RCP8.0 - which assumes almost nothing is done to tackle GHG's at all, completely out of the equation.

Instead we focus on the moderate projections of RCP4.5 and 6.0 (i.e. some actions will be taken, but probably not enough to meet the 1.5 - 2°C scenarios).

1. Moderate projections show that by mid-century, average summer temperatures will increase by around 2-3°C (and possibly 4°C in southern England), and by around 1-3°C in the winter.
2. Moderate projections show that by mid-century, average summer rainfall will decrease by around 10% in northern Scotland and up to 40% along the southern English coast, while increasing by up to 40% in parts of northern Scotland, and 10-30% elsewhere, in the winter.

So what?
There are still a frightening number of people who cannot connect the dots between scientific evidence, the changing weather patterns they have been witnessing over the last few decades, and the potential impacts these changes have, and may more frequently have in the future, on our lives. 

Even worse, there are those that see all of this, and choose to ignore it. There are more than a few politicians who fall into one or other of these camps, naming no orange-skinned, toupee wearing names in particular.

Even though we hear that many of the more catastrophic impacts will be felt elsewhere in the world (so no need to panic, eh) - it always seems to be the poorest people that bear the brunt of this - with increased likelihoods of tropical storms, severe flooding and prolonged drought periods. 

Here in the UK there will almost certainly still be some harsh impacts. Failure to take heed of these will cost us a lot of money (and probably quite a bit more than the cost of properly preparing ourselves), and ultimately, it may cost many lives as well!

How might it look to us?

• Increased flood events - remember the devastation of the flooding in the SW in 2014, or Storm Desmond the following year? Those kind of one in a hundred and one in a decade storms, are becoming much more frequent.
• More high winds - that equals more power lines down, building damage etc. (and then too dangerous conditions for anyone to fix them)
• Prolonged dry periods - will put pressure on water resources, will cause areas to become more prone to wildfires, and dry out soil leading to erosion and compacted ground (which in turn, increased the negative effects of flooding)
• Higher storm surges - leading to increased coastal erosion and damage
• Water scarcity = water rationing
• All of the above = disruption to movement of goods and services; so harder for our food and medicines to get to where they need to be, harder for emergency services to respond, harder for key staff to get into work to fix some of the problems that occur

If you look at the centre boxes to the left - you can get an idea of how summer precipitation may look by the latter part of the century, using the moderate projections.

It is showing a more than reasonable likelihood of rainfall decreasing by at least 10-20%, with areas of the south and south-west getting up towards 30-40% decreases.

While I have said to ignore the more extreme RCP8.5 scenario, you can very clearly see the potential result of doing little or nothing over the next few decades. Those dark brown splodges over the southern half of England indicate rainfall decreasing up to 80%!

And no one should be laughing, because even the places that get off 'lightly' will see rainfall decrease by around 40-50%.

There isn't much to laugh about when looking at the temperature either.

Again, look at the moderate projections for our summer temperatures by late this century. Most of the southern half of England is looking at possible mean temperature rises of maybe 4 or 5°C.

You may say, 'so what?' 
But that could mean your typical August day being 30° instead of 25°C - and a very hot day being 37°C instead of 32° (and I use that example, because it was at least 32° today)!

And like before, look at the possible implications for taking no action on climate change. The top right box (the most extreme of the probabilities) is almost off-the-chart dark red - showing potential mean temperature rises of 8°C or more across all of England, Wales and southern Scotland!










The accusation, and with a degree of truth, that has previously been made of climate scientists, is that there messages are always all 'doom and gloom', and that they aren't very good at discussing the subject in terms that people can, or want, to relate to.

This is fair - and five or ten years ago, we should have been talking less about apocalypses and catastrophes - and more about how the changes we need to make will also make for a world that is much more pleasant to live in (less air pollution, more trees, more green spaces etc.). 

And while that is all still largely a true reflection of what we could have if we get it right - because, to some degree, we didn't get the message across very well and it has been largely ignored - we are now really teetering on the edge of the precipice. 

Research:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/ukcp