Tuesday, 19 November 2019

Will climate change be on the agenda at this election?

With the release today of the Green Party manifesto, it seems fitting to ponder whether climate change, and the environment in general, will feature heavily in the general election chat?

Climate change has leapt to the fore this year with Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion becoming household names around the world.

The other main UK parties all touch on climate and environment to varying degrees, but this is obviously the Green's main subject area - so what are their key proposals?

Not Now, When?
Is the name of their manifesto, by the way.... The headline pledge is that of making the UK net zero for carbon emissions by 2030 - something that is way ahead of the Liberal Democrats (LD), who call for it to happen by 2045, and the Tories who enacted the recent legislation for this to happen by 2050 (on the advice of the Committee on Climate Change [CCC]).

To get to this, the Green's say that they will spend £100bn a year on it for a decade. All petrol and diesel vehicles will be phased out by 2030; gas boilers switched out (to hydrogen maybe?); home insulation will be improved and all carbon emissions avoided or sequestered in rocks and trees.

They argue that with low interest rates on government borrowing at the moment, this creates "an unparalleled opportunity for public investment" to tackle the issue. There will be a carbon tax on the extraction of oil and gas, and more taxes on fuels, raising the prices for the consumer. The focus will be on creating new jobs in the clean and green industries, which will mean other industries would certainly face losses.

What else?
The manifesto also pledges an extra £6bn a year to 2030 for the NHS, with an additional £1bn a year for nursing higher education, and a reduction in private sector involvement in the health service.

They pledge to plant 700m trees by 2030, way ahead of both LD at 60m a year, and the Tories at 30m a year. They will also encourage farmers to adopt greener practices, anticipating that eventually 50% of agriculture will be agro-forestry (where food crops are planted between trees) inside a decade - something which perhaps surprisingly, farmer's unions say is not impossible.

There will be a scrapping of tuition fees. A basic income of £89 per person will be introduced, with extra for families and pensioners. Free personal care will be offered in the home to the over 65's.

With home energy efficiency currently averaging D on the EPC ratings, they will be looking at a 'deep retro-fitting' programme to improve that. In 2018, only 0.22% of registered properties reached an A on the EPC scale.

There will be a ban on single-use plastics, and an extension to the bag tax to include plastic bottles, single-use plastics and microplastics.

Climate Change and the election
While Brexit, and also the health service, will tend to dominate the election campaign this time around, will climate change and the environment muster very high on the agenda?

It is the single most important issue of this, or indeed any recent, generation (yes, even more than Brexit) - so it really needs to be front and centre of each debate. What the parties end up pledging and doing on this front is of vital importance to us in Britain, and elsewhere around the globe (especially if we are still the global player we say we are).

YouGov has tracked views on the environment for a decade or so, and it has generally tracked very low in terms of its importance to voters. When the bad storms hit in the winter of 2013-14, this level spiked, but soon returned to normal.

But this year there has been a more fundamental change. Pollster, Chris Curtis, says that 27% of people now have the topic in their top3 issues, along with Brexit and healthcare. Meanwhile, 45% of 18 - 24 year olds rank it as second most important! Therefore, one can argue that the topic will indeed be crucial in the run up to the election next month.

Extinction Rebellion upset some people and inspired others - but either way, undoubtedly furthered the debate. Greta Thunberg and the school strikes have caught the imagination of schoolchildren around the globe. Their more dramatic actions have actually forced changes - after years of people politely waving placards and camping outside in protest over things, this more direct approach, whilst ruffling more than a few feathers, has actually garnered results! Legislation has been enacted, and politicians and businesses are having to take this much more seriously than ever before.

The issue will not go away, as it will be on our minds on an ever increasing basis. We have had the Australian wildfires and the floods in northern England in the last week. 2019 has seen record breaking heatwaves in places, and rising temperatures are not a future issue, it is one we are already witnessing. 2016 was the hottest year on record, and 18 of the 19 hottest years have been during this century (we are only 2019)! The one exception? 1998 - just 2 years outside this century. It doesn't take a rocket (or indeed climate) scientist to see how this is going.....

What are the others saying?
Well it's too early to say much - remember the Green's were the first with their manifesto. The Tories have announced a ban on fracking, but this may be more of a well-timed pause!? They also point to their net-zero carbon commitment, with the UK being the first major economy to stake such an objective. Opposition parties want the achievement to happen sooner though. 

Labour have a Warm Homes plan, which will see 27m homes insulated, along with help for solar panels and heat pumps.

Labour, LD, Green's and SNP have all called for a live climate change debate as part of the election build-up - but as yet this has not been confirmed.

Whatever end date you set as a target, radical change is needed, as is heavy investment over the next decade. With the next climate conference (CoP26) happening in Glasgow next year - the eyes of the world will be on the UK, so it will be ever more important that whichever party (or parties) end up in control next month, take this subject very seriously.

Research:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50464641
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50307304

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