Will climate change be on the agenda at this election?

With the release today of the Green Party manifesto, it seems fitting to ponder whether climate change, and the environment in general, will feature heavily in the general election chat?

Climate change has leapt to the fore this year with Greta Thunberg and Extinction Rebellion becoming household names around the world.

The other main UK parties all touch on climate and environment to varying degrees, but this is obviously the Green's main subject area - so what are their key proposals?

Not Now, When?

Is the name of their manifesto, by the way.... The headline pledge is that of making the UK net zero for carbon emissions by 2030 - something that is way ahead of the Liberal Democrats (LD), who call for it to happen by 2045, and the Tories who enacted the recent legislation for this to happen by 2050 (on the advice of the Committee on Climate Change [CCC]).

To get to this, the Green's say that they will spend £100bn a year on it for a decade. All petrol and diesel vehicles will be phased out by 2030; gas boilers switched out (to hydrogen maybe?); home insulation will be improved and all carbon emissions avoided or sequestered in rocks and trees.

They argue that with low interest rates on government borrowing at the moment, this creates "an unparalleled opportunity for public investment" to tackle the issue. There will be a carbon tax on the extraction of oil and gas, and more taxes on fuels, raising the prices for the consumer. The focus will be on creating new jobs in the clean and green industries, which will mean other industries would certainly face losses.

What else?

The manifesto also pledges an extra £6bn a year to 2030 for the NHS, with an additional £1bn a year for nursing higher education, and a reduction in private sector involvement in the health service.

They pledge to plant 700m trees by 2030, way ahead of both LD at 60m a year, and the Tories at 30m a year. They will also encourage farmers to adopt greener practices, anticipating that eventually 50% of agriculture will be agro-forestry (where food crops are planted between trees) inside a decade - something which perhaps surprisingly, farmer's unions say is not impossible.

There will be a scrapping of tuition fees. A basic income of £89 per person will be introduced, with extra for families and pensioners. Free personal care will be offered in the home to the over 65's.

With home energy efficiency currently averaging D on the EPC ratings, they will be looking at a 'deep retro-fitting' programme to improve that. In 2018, only 0.22% of registered properties reached an A on the EPC scale.

There will be a ban on single-use plastics, and an extension to the bag tax to include plastic bottles, single-use plastics and microplastics.

Climate Change and the election

While Brexit, and also the health service, will tend to dominate the election campaign this time around, will climate change and the environment muster very high on the agenda?

It is the single most important issue of this, or indeed any recent, generation (yes, even more than Brexit) - so it really needs to be front and centre of each debate. What the parties end up pledging and doing on this front is of vital importance to us in Britain, and elsewhere around the globe (especially if we are still the global player we say we are).

YouGov has tracked views on the environment for a decade or so, and it has generally tracked very low in terms of its importance to voters. When the bad storms hit in the winter of 2013-14, this level spiked, but soon returned to normal.

But this year there has been a more fundamental change. Pollster, Chris Curtis, says that 27% of people now have the topic in their top3 issues, along with Brexit and healthcare. Meanwhile, 45% of 18 - 24 year olds rank it as second most important! Therefore, one can argue that the topic will indeed be crucial in the run up to the election next month.

Extinction Rebellion upset some people and inspired others - but either way, undoubtedly furthered the debate. Greta Thunberg and the school strikes have caught the imagination of schoolchildren around the globe. Their more dramatic actions have actually forced changes - after years of people politely waving placards and camping outside in protest over things, this more direct approach, whilst ruffling more than a few feathers, has actually garnered results! Legislation has been enacted, and politicians and businesses are having to take this much more seriously than ever before.

The issue will not go away, as it will be on our minds on an ever increasing basis. We have had the Australian wildfires and the floods in northern England in the last week. 2019 has seen record breaking heatwaves in places, and rising temperatures are not a future issue, it is one we are already witnessing. 2016 was the hottest year on record, and 18 of the 19 hottest years have been during this century (we are only 2019)! The one exception? 1998 - just 2 years outside this century. It doesn't take a rocket (or indeed climate) scientist to see how this is going.....

What are the others saying?

Well it's too early to say much - remember the Green's were the first with their manifesto. The Tories have announced a ban on fracking, but this may be more of a well-timed pause!? They also point to their net-zero carbon commitment, with the UK being the first major economy to stake such an objective. Opposition parties want the achievement to happen sooner though. 

Labour have a Warm Homes plan, which will see 27m homes insulated, along with help for solar panels and heat pumps.

Labour, LD, Green's and SNP have all called for a live climate change debate as part of the election build-up - but as yet this has not been confirmed.

Whatever end date you set as a target, radical change is needed, as is heavy investment over the next decade. With the next climate conference (CoP26) happening in Glasgow next year - the eyes of the world will be on the UK, so it will be ever more important that whichever party (or parties) end up in control next month, take this subject very seriously.

Research:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50464641

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50307304

Apocalypse now?

Okay, so that title may seem a little dramatic, but the events unfolding across the globe in recent days, weeks and months, do seem to be pointing to a very concerning and troubled period for our precious planet (and that may well be an understatement).

We have seen perhaps unprecedented levels of wildfires in the Arctic this summer, there were wildfires in England even in February and not forgetting wildfires in California in the last few weeks.

Australia - 'catastrophic'!
But now we have wildfires in Australia that are being termed 'catastrophic', with fires said to be threatening Sydney itself potentially by Tuesday of this week. Temperatures are expected to reach 37°C by then, with strong winds fanning the flames, and this could well intensify what has already been one hell of a few months for New South Wales (NSW).

Hundred's of bush fires have been raging in the state for the last two months following a period of extended drought. Even some torrential rain storms last week (which had the poor, beleaguered farmers out celebrating for a while) were not enough to properly dampen the fires. There are now more than a hundred burning across NSW and Queensland, with at least three people dead so far, and thousands more displaced from their homes.

Fire rages in Bobin, north of Sydney, this weekend
 (photo: AFP)

The fires have spread across 1,000km (620 miles) of the eastern coast of Australia, and Sydney has spent days shrouded in smoke from fires burning up at Port Macquerie. By Friday, the Rural Fire Service Commissioner, Shane Fitzsimmons, said they were in 'uncharted territory', with 17 emergency level fires going, a number they say that they have never seen blazing concurrently.

But what really broke the devastation and despair around this situation home to me, was when Fitzsimmons said that they "will save as many people as possible." Not even an appearance of pretending that all will be well at the end of the day! There are already around 1,300 firefighters working tirelessly to try and stem these fires, with the help of around 70 aircraft. But getting water to some of the remoter areas, and even just getting water (it has been an awful drought, don't forget), has been a tough challenge. Additional firefighters have come over from New Zealand to try and give local crews some respite, and Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has not ruled out sending in the military to help.

Scientists are firmly putting this series of events at the door of climate change, saying that the Australian bush fire season is only going to get increasingly longer and more intense, all because of climate change. 2018 and 2017 were the third and fourth hottest Australian years on record, respectively. Morrison has been getting some stick over Australia's poor governmental track record on combating climate change (he is a good buddy of Trump don't forget - with a shared love of the coal industry), but he has been deflecting this by saying now is not the time for politics.

He may not be able to use this excuse for long, as Australians start to adjust to these potentially ever worsening periods of fire, and it seems that the farmers of NSW may become unlikely climate change warriors.

South Yorkshire
At the same time as eastern (and some western parts) Australia fights the ravages of drought and all that brings, large parts of northern England, and especially South Yorkshire, are fighting the effects of intense rainfall.

The last week or so has seen some prolific amounts of rainfall, with a months worth of rain falling in a day in some places. As of Sunday evening, there are almost 50 flood warning in place across England! Seven of these are listed as Severe (that is that they pose a threat to life) on the River Don alone, and the Environment Agency (EA) has posted a further 40 Warnings (flooding is expected) and 93 Alerts elsewhere.

Doncaster Council has been calling for the village of Fishlake to be evacuated, with many residents already being brought out by boat, but more still remaining and taking their chances. The situation there has led to renewed calls that the river (Don) needs to be dredged to help alleviate future issues.

Worksop has declared a 'major incident' after the River Ryton burst its banks. Derby city centre was almost evacuated too, after the river there reached unprecedented levels of 3.35m (11ft). Bentley, on the northern edge of Doncaster has been badly hit by flooding, and this follows it being swamped in floods 12 years ago too.

There is much pain and anger in places like this. People worry if they will be able to afford home insurance anymore (premiums went up after the events 12 years ago), or if they will even be able to get insurance. There was also anger and frustration directed at Doncaster Council, as many residents felt that they did not get protective sandbags issued quickly enough.

Shoppers rescued from the floods near
Parkgate Shopping Centre, Rotherham
(photo: South Yorkshire Police)

And while the chaos is not limited to this area, it does seem to have borne the brunt. There has been much disruption to Northern Rail services in the area and some road closures. Dozens were trapped in the Meadowhall shopping centre in Sheffield Thursday night after many city centre streets flooded leaving buses, cars and taxis unable to get through. Parkgate shopping centre in Rotherham also required boats to get some of its shoppers out, the other day.

South Yorkshire Fire Service have had to bring in five extra high volume pumps and five boat crews from elsewhere in the country to help deal with the demands they are facing.

The end result is the same...
While both of these events are vastly different in nature, the end results are often the same. In both cases people have tragically died, homes are being lost and businesses ruined. The costs to deal with these events, both during and in the aftermath, are staggering, as is the impact and negative effects on the local, regional and often national economies! 

Both events have strong links to climate change effects, and it seems this will happen again and again until we (and especially politicians) wake up to the facts. 

Money and effort has to be spent on measures to combat CO2 emissions, to try and prevent the warming scenarios associated with 1.5 - 2°C average temperature rises. This will help lessen the future likelihood of such events getting worse. 

Then there must also be money spent on preparation and mitigation to try and preempt what will happen as such events become more frequent / more intense (resolving issues around land use, flood defences, water usage etc.). This will mean that businesses, individuals, councils and governments have to change their mindset on what they do and how they do it - but if changes are not made, then the effects of such events will become more devastating to life, home and business.

Research:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50365131 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50341207
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50365468
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50341846

Is tourism sustainable?

Having just got back from a few days away in Cornwall, it got me thinking about the whole issue of tourism and whether or not it can ever be sustainable?

Sustainabletourism.net says that;

“Sustainable tourism development requires the informed participation of all relevant stakeholders, as well as strong political leadership to ensure wide participation and consensus building. Achieving sustainable tourism is a continuous process and it requires constant monitoring of impacts, introducing the necessary preventive and/or corrective measures whenever necessary.

Sustainable tourism should also maintain a high level of tourist satisfaction and ensure a meaningful experience to the tourists, raising their awareness about sustainability issues and promoting sustainable tourism practices amongst them.”

The conundrum for me is all around getting the balance right. At its heart, sustainability relies on the balance between the three core principles of environment, social aspects and finance; and tourism is a great topic area to highlight the potential issues with getting it right.

Many people overlook the financial aspect of sustainability. Whether you look at this as an individual, an organisation or a region or country - if you do not make yourselves financially viable, then the rest of the stuff is irrelevant!

So tourism is a great way to generate income, especially if you have a saleable tourist commodity - in Cornwall's case, there is landscape, ocean and history in abundance to draw people in. Cornwall is around 3,500km2 in size, with a population a little over half a million, and tourism accounts for around 24% of its income (2011 figures of £1.85bn).

This relates to tourism numbers of around 4.5 million visitors a year, yet successful marketing campaigns and an extra warm summer in 2018, saw those numbers jump by 20%. Is that kind of surge in numbers sustainable - especially in such a relatively small space (for American readers, Cornwall is around 500km2 smaller than Rhode Island, which is the smallest state in the US)? Well last year's rise in numbers seems to have caused an increase in safety and travel issues.

So we come back to the balance question. Bringing in more tourists, brings in more money, so that is the sustainable finance box ticked. But what about the potential impacts on the environment?

• Water: tourism can impact on local water resources - hotel pools, golf courses etc.
• Sewage: increased numbers can often put a strain on local sewage and water treatment facilities.
• Pollution: more tourism often leads to more traffic etc. which means more noise and air pollution.
• Littering: more people unfortunately generally leads to more litter.
• Aesthetics: the impacts of more people in an area, new buildings constructed to meet their needs, and the building sites themselves.
• Physical degradation impacts on coasts, forests, reefs and so on, both from trampling of tourist feet and being removed to make way for tourist facilities.

So there are big questions around whether the environmental sustainability boxes get ticked. This area will provide big headaches to local governments, businesses and organisations (like the National Trust) to get right. Ultimately, if the environment gets too degraded, then it become a less 'saleable' asset, so it should be in everyone's interest to keep it looking as nice as possible.

What about the social sustainability aspect? Well. going back to the Cornish example, despite all of this tourist revenue, and despite an unemployment rate of around 3.6% (below the national average of 4.5%), Cornwall is still considered one of the poorer counties in the UK, with a low average household income and a GDP only at 64% (2011) of the EU average. Things like expensive second homes have really made a negative impact here.

Another general social impact of tourism is the sheer disruption that it can cause - the clogged streets, overcrowded cafes and shops, and so on, can have a very detrimental affect on local people - and despite the financial benefits, it is often they who put the pressure on governments and businesses to address these issues. How often I have been to a beautiful place and thought, 'I could really live here', and then reconsidered when I have thought about whether I want a thousand extra people walking past my doorstep every day for over half the year......

Solutions?

Solutions are needed to get to this balance (especially on environmental impacts) and can be varied in scale and severity. Limiting the number of cruise ships docking, time limits on apartment rentals and charges (or increased charges) for attractions have all been used, or are being considered, in various places. And in parts of Asia, whole islands have been closed to allow for recovery (e.g. Borocay in the Philippines), and Iceland have banned construction permits for new hotels in Reykjavik. The traveller is also obviously part of the solution too - being considerate wherever you go, and where possible, trying to live a bit more of the local lifestyle, rather than just staying in the tourist bubble of hotel, pool, beach (getting a little off the tourist trail will also often help get money more directly into the pockets of local people).

Research:

https://sustainabletourism.net/sustainable-tourism/definitions/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornwall

https://www.gdrc.org/uem/eco-tour/envi/one.html

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/unemployment-levels-cornwall-increase-even-2006015
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/features/overtourism-how-to-make-global-tourism-sustainable/