They say that around 9% of the earth's natural land (95% of which is in the tropics) will be gone in the next 80 years. They have studied the impact of consumption trends on biodiverse regions (i.e. those with lots of bird, mammal, amphibian and plant species), and found that a rapid increase in the amount of meat and dairy consumed has led to rapid land clearing in the tropics.
Meat production has a much higher land and water use rate, and higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, than anything else. As income starts to increase across the globe, those in developing nations are starting to replace their traditional starch-heavy roots and pulse based diets, with more meat, milk and refined sugars.
Basically, this type of trend will always occur when living standards improve. And that is not all that surprising. Livestock are crucial in the developing world; for small-scale farmers, cows and other ruminants offer a flexible option, as they convert relatively low-quality proteins (like grass), into high-quality proteins (like meat and milk). They are vital for those farming in marginal agricultural areas, that are unsuitable for most crops, as they provide a food resource when times are hard, and can also be sold for valuable cash (for medicine, schooling etc.) at other times.
The Edinburgh study says that replacing meat with a plant based diet could see the demand for new grazing land drop by 11% globally. They also point to industrial feed systems, as part of the problem, as they also add to the environmental degradation due to things like fertilisers. This goes along with the IPCC report that highlighted plant based diets as being an essential part of climate change mitigation.
Lead author, Dr Roslyn Henry, said, "Reducing meat and dairy consumption will have positive effects on greenhouse gas emissions and human health. It will also help biodiversity, which must be conserved to ensure the world's growing population is fed. Changing our diets will lead to a more sustainable future and complement food security goals, while addressing global food inequality."
It is anticipated that at current levels of consumption, by 2050 certain meats may be eaten at a rate 90% higher than in 2010 (World Resources Institute)! The global population is expected to reach 10 billion by 2050 - and that is 3 billion more of us than there were in 2010! So turning away from animal derived products could certainly help bridge the sustainability gap in terms of mitigating for food, land and GHG emissions.
Not all agree so wholeheartedly. Chris Barrett, an Agricultural Economist at Cornell University, thinks that pushing for a plant based diet, "are aspirations not components of a viable food security strategy." This is part of a belief that it is only really realistic to expect any sort of pressure to decrease meat consumption in already developed nations, where additional concerns around excessive meat eating can be linked to health conditions.
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| (Photo: CSIRO Science Image) |
The particular issues with beef:
While beef production may have become more efficient over the years, there is still ever more forest being cut down to make way for pasture. And while many people will say that they will eat more plants and a bit less meat, consumption of meat is still on the rise.
Beef has particular links to climate change for several reasons;
- Production:
- Ruminants emit more methane (their 'burps' are properly called enteric fermentation) than other livestock
- It is also emitted from their manure
- You also get nitrous oxide from some of the fertilisers used on cattle crops.
- Also - CO2 is also released from the forests cut down to make way for the pastures - cutting trees released that stored carbon straight into the atmosphere.
- Emissions:
- The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) reported in 2013 that animal based agriculture is responsible for 14.5% of all human based emissions
- Beef makes up 41% of that!
- They said that beef demand could grow by as much as 88% by 2050, from 2010 levels.
- And such an increase in demand would require an estimated 400m hectares of additional pasture (that's bigger than India)!
- More resource intensive:
- Cows have lower growth and reproductive rates than pigs and poultry, so therefore require more feed per unit of meat produced.
- They also require up to 20 times more land, and produce 20 times more emissions than plant based protein production.
So, reducing the amount of beef consumed in developed countries to an average of 50 calories per day (equivalent to 1.5 burgers a week) would eliminate that need for agricultural expansion - even in a world with 10 billion people on it.
Strides are being made to improve how we produce beef;
- Improvements to feed quality and veterinarian care
- Developing breeds that convert feed to meat / milk more efficiently
- Use of rotational grazing - boosts soil health and increases production - and reduces GHG emissions
- There are also now feed additives that can reduce the amount of those 'cow burps'
So - no one is asking, or telling, you to cut out meat entirely. But if you are in a position to think about how your diet can affect the rest of the world - consider cutting back a bit.
Go vegetarian / vegan a couple of days a week - and maybe cut beef down to once a week, or once a fortnight. If every family in the developed world could do this - we could make a difference.
Research:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/08/190812102853.htm
https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2019/diet-change-needed-to-save-vast-areas-of-tropics
http://theconversation.com/five-ways-the-meat-on-your-plate-is-killing-the-planet-76128
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263290290_The_impact_of_meat_consumption_on_the_tropics_Reply_to_Machovina_and_Feeley
https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/04/6-pressing-questions-about-beef-and-climate-change-answered
https://www.ecowatch.com/beef-and-climate-change-2634244134.html
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